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Polymarket (opens in new tab)

Will George R. R. Martin announce "The Winds of Winter" in 2026?

Uncategorized · OPEN · Updated Oct 26, 02:01 PM

Ticker: 689501

Primary probability

65 days remaining

Jan 1, 04:59 AM

Volume (24h)

Movement

Freshness

Out of date

Prices

  • Yes 5.2% · Oct 24, 06:02 PM
  • No 92.2% · Oct 26, 02:01 PM

Odds movement

  • 24h · —
  • 7d · Up 0.1 pts

Movement from stored price snapshots — not live venue ticks.

Cross-venue divergence

No verified cross-venue match on this market yet. Divergence appears after the matching pipeline confirms a Polymarket–Kalshi pair.

Whale watchlist

Updated Aug 6, 08:03 AM
  • Yes — 4 whales on the same side (cluster signal)
  • Hard-Norm · Yes · rank #1 · 51.6% of tracked top holders
  • Distinct-Goggles · Yes · rank #2 · 30.4% of tracked top holders
  • Guilty-Spring · Yes · rank #3 · 11.1% of tracked top holders
  • Weekly-Rating · Yes · rank #4 · 6.9% of tracked top holders
  • Medium-Session · No · rank #1 · 94.1% of tracked top holders
  • Fluffy-Settler · No · rank #2 · 5.9% of tracked top holders

Pre-move flags compare first top-holder observation against stored snapshot price moves — not confirmed wallet entry times.

Monitoring context only — not trading advice. Insights are cached deterministic summaries with no live model calls on page load.